2025 Predictions

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One of the challenges with making predictions the last few years was that every year seemed to be wilder than the last. It was tempting to hope that crazy things you want to see happen would happen. This year, it feels like we are headed to a more normal time, but that probably means we see some important things begin to happen, now that the crazies are going into hibernation. This could turn out to be a less dramatic year than 2024, but a much more substantial one.

Every year there is an important topic that is bubbling under the surface, either in the ruling class or amongst the rabble, that suddenly breaks through. In 2024, we moved from “securing the border” to “mass deportation now” as the growing sentiment against immigration of all types finally broke through. The 2025 issue will be the collapsing birth rates around the world. It is a thing that gets discussed in certain circles, but 2025 will be the year it goes mainstream.

We will have to suffer from the usual slop from the commentariat, who will try to make money applying the old slogans to this issue. The public nuisances we call influencers will pollute the waters too. But by the end of the year, the educated debate will settle on the four D’s of human destiny. Diet, Development, Divinity and Deracination will be the focus for what is causing the fertility collapse. The most important issue in the world will suddenly become import…

A long ignored issue related to the immigration debate and related to the birth rate debate, is the collapse of middle-class wages relative to the labor productivity gains of the last thirty years. A thing everyone has sensed for a long time is finally getting hard numbers attached to it. The truth is the fruit of the microprocessor revolution went primarily to the economic elites. Meanwhile, the middle-class has seen themselves turned into wage slaves…

One immediate upshot in the changing nature of the online right will be the long overdue marginalization of the influencer. These pests who jump into every issue hoping to score attention, while pretending to lead the debate will finally run out of road with the audience. They will not go away completely as there is always a supply of suckers for them to grift, but in 2025 the label “influencer” will become synonymous with the word “grifter” for the online right…

Once Trump ascends the throne, he will pardon all but a handful of the January 6 victims, leaving the edge cases for review. The overwhelming majority of the victims should have been handed a fine, but some did engage in criminal acts that are serious enough to warrant a review before pardoning. These victims may get commutations as a compromise solution. There will be no retribution from Team Trump. He will avoid going down this road for political reasons…

In February, the Republican Party will try to focus Trump on passing another tax scheme like they did in his first term. This will be part of a scheme to run the clock until the midterms, which they plan to throw to the Democrats. Having learned his lesson, Trump will squash this idea before it gets going. Look for Trump to be much tougher with his own party this time around. The fact is the biggest obstacle to reform is the GOP and the conservative industrial complex…

In the run up to the German elections, the government will begin arresting AfD members on the grounds they are coordinating with Russia. The Musk endorsement will prove to be the thing that breaks the glass for many Germans, and we will see polling that suggests the AfD could be following the path of Le Pen as a populist alternative to the corrupt ruling coalition. In defense of democracy, the German ruling coalition will seek to take the public out of the process…

The unrest in Syria will begin to spill over into other countries. Jordan will be the first crisis as the government has been unpopular for a long time but has also been weakening for a long time. They have the same problem as the Assad government, just without American sanctions. Similarly, the Egyptian government will begin to crack in the face of new activity by the Muslim Brotherhood and the spill over from the Israeli war on the people of Gaza.

This will not be the only problem in the Muslim world. The Israelis will shift from Iran as the great enemy to Turkey, as the Turks seek to establish themselves as the new Ottoman empire and regional hegemon. The Turks are using the Syrian crisis to address their Kurdish problem and build a new Arab coalition that is aligned with them over the Iranians. The Israelis will seek to use rising tensions between the Turks and Washington to warrant a militaristic line against Ankara…

Despite his promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24-hours, Trump will find that there is no deal to be made in Ukraine. Zelensky and his European backers will never agree to a deal and the Russians are in no mood to help Trump, so the result will be a slow burn of Ukraine until it collapses this summer. Trump will conclude that it is a loser and simply stop supporting Zelensky. Often, the best solution to a problem is to accept that there is no solution to the problem…

Trump will begin talks with China that will evolve into a grand bargain to not just include Taiwan, but the long-term economic relationship between the Western hemisphere and the Chinese. Trump’s bluster about the Panama Canal is aimed at expanding the discussion beyond Taiwan. Adding China’s growing influence in South America gives Trump options, but also gives the Chinese a shot at a long-term solution to their problems as well…

I will have three surprises for 2025…

In sports, the world will suddenly realize that soccer is boring and stop watching these interminable events. The New York Mets will win the World Series, and the Detroit Lions will win the Super Bowl. This will lead many to dub 2025 the year of the loser in honor of the fanbases of these two teams. In 2025 it will finally be acknowledged that we have moved past peak sports. Interest has been declining, but new ways to monetize every nook and cranny has masked it, but the mask drops in 2025…

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Comments (Historical)

The comments below were originally posted to thezman.com.

120 Comments

Tars Tarkas #437737 January 1, 2025 11:16 am 52
Trump should pardon all of the J6 people regardless of what they did. The left doesn’t prosecute their foot soldiers. All of the J45 rioters got their charges dropped, even with Trump in the presidency. Reward your side, brutally punish their side. Any antifa arrested on Trump’s inauguration day should be facing RICO and terrorism charges. Even black left-wing Atlanta is doing this with the cop city protests.
Hoagie #437740 January 1, 2025 11:27 am 44
Plus, get that SOB Byrd and prosecute him for the murder of Ashli Babbitt.
Moran ya Simba #437779 January 1, 2025 1:31 pm 1
You sound like trump was on your side
Ostei Kozelskii #437796 January 1, 2025 2:33 pm 10
Spring Mangione and put him on the job.
ProZNoV #437812 January 1, 2025 4:30 pm 2
There is no statute of limitations for murder.
pyrrhus #437780 January 1, 2025 1:38 pm 22
Totally agree…Whatever they did, typically nothing, they have been punished 100x anything reasonable…
LineInTheSand #437739 January 1, 2025 11:21 am 27
My question for 2025: Will this be the year that we see significant defections of less successful white liberals from the media-driven hatred of traditional whites? I’m thinking of the white liberals that I know, who are middle class, at best. They watch MSNBC/CNN and enjoy identifying with the elites. They love to feel superior by looking down on us. But those elites are demanding mass immigration and DEI. At some point, when they are not considered for a job/promotion, or they are can’t afford the house/condo they want, or they are stuck in grinding traffic, will they doubt their religious faith?
Jack Dobson #437742 January 1, 2025 11:34 am 24
They are about to learn that anti-whiteness doesn’t have any partisan concerns. Whether that disabuses them of their beliefs is another matter. I never have squared how left-leaning engineers on the West Coast reconcile their politics with their economic prospects, for example. They are just as hopeless as grillers and cucks.
Hemid #437766 January 1, 2025 12:47 pm 11
As Vivek reminded us, nerd politics is a fantasy of revenge against Chad and Stacy. It doesn’t matter what really happens—midwits can rationalize anything—as long as it hurts some imaginary cheerleader. Same story as conservatives relishing regime abuse ofotherwhite losers, even (maybe especially) when it means their own defeat.
Hoagie #437745 January 1, 2025 11:37 am 12
Sorry Line, leftists are never wrong and never in doubt when they are.
LineInTheSand #437747 January 1, 2025 11:45 am 14
The strength of the faith of leftists does put that of many Christian fundamentalists to shame 🙂 But I was a California Bill Clinton liberal at one time and congratulated myself on my sophistication. Now I’m a guy who has to hide his political beliefs if he wants to keep his job. Looking back, I had some experiences that made me feel like, despite my dedication to the faith, the makers of the media saw me as expendable. I wonder if many others might be having experiences like mine.
3g4me #437765 January 1, 2025 12:39 pm 8
That wouldrequire an honest and lucid acceptance of reality. That would break their programming since birth. I wouldn’t hold my breath if I were you.
LineInTheSand #437768 January 1, 2025 12:54 pm 16
So many of them conceive of themselves as courageous and rebellious as they parrot the ubiquitous narrative. It is amazing and disorienting to behold. It seems to spring from the idea that we live in a white supremacist world, which they boldly reject. I never would have guessed that such an obviously false interpretation of society could be possible. The media is almost entirely responsible for maintaining this illusion. I’m convinced that there is some inborn ability to think independently, which is most common in whites, but is rare even there. Such an ability would be difficult to quantify.
Ploppy #437769 January 1, 2025 1:02 pm 18
It’s really just teenager psychology, loudly proclaiming how unique and special they are because they’re parroting and copying everything about the cool kids. And since the left owns the media they manufacture the cool kids. So the cool kid is rebelliously against racism and climate change and portrays himself as going against some phantasmal right wing establishment, despite the reality of him obeying every actual social taboo as studiously as possible like a good little drone.Leftists are essentially just people who don’t mentally develop past about age 15, and locked into that high school psychological state are easily manipulated by the elite.
Ploppy #437770 January 1, 2025 1:05 pm 8
And I should mention that’s why so many people have that “Well I was a leftist when I was younger until I realized it was all bullshit.” Yup, everyone was young once and that’s why we shouldn’t begrudge anyone once they finally see the light. I was just as stupid in my early 20s.
Jeffrey Zoar #437794 January 1, 2025 2:33 pm 4
While going from hippie at 18 to Starship Trooper bit player at 21, as I did, is probably not so uncommon, I speculate that adult “transitions,” like LineInTheSand seems to describe, are very, very, very rare. Practically unheard of.
3g4me #437813 January 1, 2025 4:30 pm 5
Valid point. People become more and more fixed in thoughts, identity, politics, and environment as they age. That’s why people have such trouble getting infirm old people out of their homes even though they can’t wipe their own butt – people cling to the familiar.
Jeffrey Zoar #437824 January 1, 2025 6:11 pm 1
3g, I’d say that unaligned people, people who were never all that political to begin with, could come over to the DR in middle age or later and often have. But it’s the committed shitlib I’m talking about. Practically impossible for there to be a conversion after a certain age.
Ostei Kozelskii #437803 January 1, 2025 2:47 pm 5
I didn’t begin moving rightward until I was 24 or 25. Perhaps not coincidentally, it was also at that time that I dropped out of the popular culture.
KGB #437814 January 1, 2025 4:31 pm 5
I was 28-29. My abandonment of pop culture probably correlates to that same period but it was a more gradual process.
Nonnos #437934 January 2, 2025 12:10 pm 1
Roger Scruton described it as the juvenile repudiation of inheritance and home. The worldview of the teenager who hates his parents. It’s a natural stage of adolescence that you are supposed to grow out of.
3g4me #437810 January 1, 2025 4:27 pm 9
I tend to agree – although you, like so many of us here, came from some part of the left. I was raised entirely on the left, but as soon as I left home I began to think for myself and began questioning things. Now I’m the world’s worst cynic. What gives some people independence of thought and keeps so many other Whites totally compliant? It’s definitely not IQ – plenty of genuinely smart (not just credentialed) people who went all in on the vax. Fwiw, I have always been honest/blunt to a fault, so have ‘valued’ truth.
KGB #437825 January 1, 2025 6:21 pm 6
Back in high school, in addition to being voted “Most Likely to Succeed”, I was also voted “Biggest Complainer” because I gave teachers the hardest time. All that meant was I wanted them to prove to me their answers were correct instead of vice-versa. My guess is that trait runs strong among the commentariat here.
Steve #437827 January 1, 2025 9:55 pm 3
Funny. I was voted most likely to piss someone off. Although I’m not sure how I got the moniker. Unlike a lot of people on my age cohort – early Gen X – I was always on the right because I remember the Carter malaise very well. I also had several older relatives who not only owned their own businesses (mostly construction) but they were veterans as well. So not only did I learn first hand how badly the govt. was screwing them in terms of regulation and a number of other things, but when the disaster at Desert One went down, that really was a game changer. My Uncle Jack who fought in Korea told me the following: “Ever since the end of Vietnam we’ve been getting pushed around and the world views us as weak. Carter is a meek apologist and the taking of the hostages, along with this disaster, that only compounds how the world is laughing at us. The world is governed by force, never let anyone tell you otherwise. We can be nice to people all over the world, but it means nothing if we have to knock someone on their ass and we can’t do it and we have a president who won’t do it.” that always stuck with me. Most of my aunts thought Carter was wonderful. “He’s an honest man.” they would tell me and I remember getting yelled at because I told one of them – my Aunt Isabelle – “He can’t do anything right, so who cares if he’s honest?” she never did have a response to that.
c matt #437910 January 2, 2025 11:23 am 0
There is a difference between being strong and being an asshole. Sure, Carter gave the impression of being weak, but going around the world to beat up on lessers only proves you’re a piece of shit, not “strong.” Anyway, being lead around by the nose by a group of bronze age perverts hardly shows strength.
Ostei Kozelskii #437801 January 1, 2025 2:44 pm 5
Leftism is an assault upon reality, and its believers, perforce, spend their lives inside a mirage.
pyrrhus #437786 January 1, 2025 1:48 pm 0
Some will, not all by any means…
LB1901 #437729 January 1, 2025 10:18 am 20
I gave up trying to predict, particularly in the age of Trump. He broke thespace-time continuum, and all the right players, so everything is a wild card, but the Zman’s are as good as any.As for,“There will be no retribution from Team Trump. He will avoid going down this road for political reasons…”This will be my biggest disappointment. Too many bad actors need to feel the pain of punishment for their horrendous crimes against humanity. Without retribution, it will all simply happen again during another election cycle.I do hold more hope for AfD in Germany, but like Le Pen in France, I fear the critical mass will simple not be there to overcome the totalitarian monolith crushing all of Europe. AfD will make an acceptable show of it, then moderate, and be absorbed into the monolith where difference and distinction become one.Happy New Year
Hun #437759 January 1, 2025 12:18 pm 14
>AfD Romania showed the way – if the wrong person wins, just save democracy by annulling the results.
Alzaebo #437785 January 1, 2025 1:48 pm 4
If we don’t need a middle class, do we need universal franchise? Restrict the franchise to the qualified!Only the managerial classes should be allowed to vote. In other words, you don’t vote unless you’re a Party member.I mean, they make us get permission for everything else under the sun, don’t they?
Compsci #437787 January 1, 2025 2:02 pm 13
Not that it will happen, but tie the vote (suffrage) to societal contribution. For example, folks on welfare or other no income/non-taxpayers can’t vote. Move the age up, not down for suffrage such that a voter has experienced life on their own. Naturalized citizens can’t vote—only natural born citizens.
Piffle #437791 January 1, 2025 2:26 pm 3
Democracy doesn’t work that way. Quite often the non-societal contributors have the correct opinions and/or will vote in the correct people. I say restrict the vote to liberal leaning felons only. It will save a great deal of time.
Compsci #437834 January 2, 2025 12:04 am 1
Democracy from its very origins in ancient Greece *did* work that way. Additionally, democracy as our Founders established/envisioned, never considered universal suffrage of the populace for a moment. If they had thought for a moment the type of voters we have today, they’d have specifically excluded most of that population when writing the Constitution.Whether a subset of non-productive people have the correct opinion every so often begs the case as to why the majority are so often wrong and how to spot and eliminate them. Those who can’t hold a job, or won’t hold a job, are prime candidates for low IQ, ignorant voters. Those on welfare will vote for benefits—even to the exclusion of the general in society—think of the nonsense that happened when Obama got elected and the rumor spread of free “Obama phones”!
Moran ya Simba #437795 January 1, 2025 2:33 pm 4
Politicians want votes. That’s why they always expand the franchise. More customers…. The ancient Greeks knew democracy is a phase, not a destination
Compsci #437835 January 2, 2025 12:06 am 1
The ancient Greeks held that democracy was for the aristocrats of the time, not the pleb’s. Mob rule was understood not as a right, but as something to be feared. And here we are today.
Ostei Kozelskii #437797 January 1, 2025 2:35 pm 4
AINO showed Romania the way with the 2020 selection.
Dutchboy #438035 January 2, 2025 5:12 pm 0
If Trump doesn’t go after the SOBs he will be making a political error. His supporters would love to see them in the dock looking at hard time.
Moran ya Simba #437724 January 1, 2025 10:06 am 20
Bitcoin, gold and silver will continue to rise, in that order. So will stocks but they are an empty bubble. Russia will continue to kill Ukrainians but the war won’t end this year. Israel will continue to kill Arabs and will attack Iran with toys provided by uncle Don.In Europe everything will continue to get worse but in the undramatic, sullen way that I’d the European norm by now. “Leaders”, chancellors and prime ministers will come and go like passengers on the subway.Back in America, it will be a cluster F. Trump will talk tough and do little. After the first scare passes this will mean more leftist lawfare and angry reactions from maga and back and forth the ball will roll. All the while twenty barbarians will be deported in front of rolling cameras and, good news, illegal immigration will return to just a few millions a year.Judging from the reaction to the United healthcare CEO killing, assassination will come back in vogue and it is possible, just possible, that our side will join the fun there.China will let Taiwan fizzle while waiting for the US to knock itself out. Argentina and parts of South America might be bright spots, mostly because any lid match looks bright in the dark. Africa will continue to be Africa but a sh*tload more Africans in it. So machete and AK stocks will remain hot.All in all, we haven’t reached the bottom yet and 2025 has plenty of room for more gardens of sh*t. But buy gold, ammo and make a baby (or push for a grandkid as relevant)
pyrrhus #437782 January 1, 2025 1:44 pm 13
Trump indicated last night that he will let in large numbers of pajeets to do the huge number of jobs he will create…We in MAGA are furious about that…Musk is busy removing check marks and subscribers from accounts that don’t go along with infinite immigration, and stealing the money paid …I predict that will not fare well….Class action coming up…
Moran ya Simba #437788 January 1, 2025 2:19 pm 14
He finked. Hell, he finked three weeks before he was even in office. Thats almost impressive in a perverse way. We’re on our own. Anything else is a lie
Horace #437823 January 1, 2025 5:45 pm 3
It’s true, but it also contributes to the further delegitimization of the entire system.
Dutchboy #438032 January 2, 2025 4:56 pm 0
Trump doesn’t need the MAGA people any more. He has gone back to his billionaire capitalist roots.
Steve #437807 January 1, 2025 3:02 pm 6
This will bring him a reckoning in 2026, should he continue on this course. If he does, his base will sit home for the mid terms, the left retakes both house and he’s impeached and convicted. Then things will get really ugly because those in the bureaucracy will come back out of the woodwork seeking victims to slake their bloodlust.
B125 #437808 January 1, 2025 3:07 pm 10
Agreed with you regarding the ongoing leadership crisis. We’ve seen in the UK (but really everywhere). All our “leaders” suck. UK voted out the Conservatives and voted in Labour. Canada is about to vote out the Liberals and vote in the Conservatives. The same unpopular policies will be pushed regardless of the shuffles going on.I see it in business too – most of the good leaders have retired. Most business “leaders” now are Gen X or Boomers who think that being “tough” means using more expletive bad boy words (probably what the TV showed them is tough), while being completely cucked and spineless on anything that actually matters (like social issues, DEI, etc). Or supporting full on outsourcing.When I scale up what I see in business to a national level, it’s really not surprising. We may be in for a rough few decades because from what I’ve seen, very few of the current people in leadership ages have any kind of insight needed to address our current issues.
G Lordon Giddy #437723 January 1, 2025 10:03 am 20
It would be great to have a lot more recognition as to just how much the middle class has been damaged since the 1970’s. Wall Street and the financialization of everything has been no friend to the white middle class, the 401k growth has a trade off and that is lower wage growth in exchange for stock price growth.
thezman #437728 January 1, 2025 10:13 am 17
https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/ I would bet the growth in wages is driven, in part, by the increased value of employer provided health insurance.
pyrrhus #437784 January 1, 2025 1:47 pm 6
Yes, but not all of it by any means…Health care was pretty cheap until Obamacare wrecked the health care industry…
Compsci #437790 January 1, 2025 2:21 pm 4
Long before Obama, healthcare was too expensive. In the 80’s already this was the case. Obama used the excuse of “40M uninsured” to promote ACA. Last count we had 8% with no insurance—don’t forget the huge expansion of indigent health care—while before Obama about 18%. The 8% is probably a hard figure if there is a contribution towards expenses/insurance required as this group is composed the very young and healthy who do not see the need for such at that point in their lives and further Congress removed the penalty tax for going naked wrt health insurance.But yes, ACA succeeded in making health care more expensive rather than cheaper for the typical insured person. It was designed to do exactly that so that the government would toss in the towel and provide “medicare for all”. This is still a goal of the left. Of course, at that point income tax will jump to European levels to pay for such with the inevitable rationing of care.
Neoliberal Feudalism #437756 January 1, 2025 12:14 pm 2
See here:https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
Xman #437744 January 1, 2025 11:36 am 18
With the caveat that my 2024 prediction that the Dems would never allow Trump to win again was totally wrong, here is my 2025 prediction: the economy will take a major dump.The stock market went up 45% in two years while GDP went up 3%. The debt is now $36 trillion. Nobody even blinks at $2 trillion annual deficits any more. Inflation is still a real problem, the government statistics that is it “only” 3% are completely false. Median housing prices are over $400k. Average cars coast $50k.Companies are starting to fail. Nissan and Chrysler are teetering. Walgreens, Advance Auto, and other major retailers are closing thousands of locations.When the economy takes a shit, they will blame Trump and try to turn him into the next Herbert Hoover.
Jeffrey Zoar #437757 January 1, 2025 12:15 pm 10
The line can’t keep going up and to the right without inflation doing so also. But they can lie to us and tell us the inflation isn’t happening. Already have been. It could be sort of a test to see how much observable reality can differ from official reality and for how long. There doesn’t have to be a limit to that, this side of empty bellies. For which they can just increase the size and scope of the SNAP benefits.
Compsci #437792 January 1, 2025 2:26 pm 5
“With the caveat that my 2024 prediction that the Dems would never allow Trump to win again was totally wrong,…” How was this wrong? The opposition did everything it could—including assassination—to stop Trump. They failed, but that doesn’t mean you were wrong. We can’t always predict success, nor failure.
Piffle #437805 January 1, 2025 2:57 pm 3
We have been in a recession for a while. However, it appears that corporate America post COVID has been engaging in “We have to raise prices because inflation/supply chain” *wink* sort of practices. They raised prices (or allowed them to rise) to crazy levels without raising wages.It’s not a situation that can last. How long before somebody panics and heads for the exits is open question.
mmack #437819 January 1, 2025 5:00 pm 11
Companies are starting to fail. Nissan and Chrysler are teetering.Xman, the entire history of Chrysler Corporation is like that of a manic depressive hooked on crank. When they get it right they’re golden, then they lose focus, f up, and plunge to the depths of despair. Consider they’ve stared down bankruptcy twice in 1979 and 2009. They’ve been bought and sold more than a lady of the night on a street corner since the mid-late 1990s.Falling in with Stellantis and the “Island of Misfit Cars” will probably doom them as Europeans have no Earthly clue what appeals to Americans, and frankly don’t care. They’ve overpriced Jeep and Ram out of the reach of their typical customer and killed V6 and V8 engines that were the heart of Chrysler and Dodge, as well as killing old yet profitable platforms with the Charger, Challenger, and 300. Rebadging an Italian CUV as a Dodge (the Hornet) has been a disaster and press reveals of the EV Dodge Charger have returned crickets chirping 🦗. Who will buy a $61K or $79K EV Charger I have no idea but at least Stellantis is trying to half-ass a twin turbo inline 6 cylinder in the damn things in hopes of selling a few more of them.Nissan? The Japanese government will shotgun wedding them to Honda whether Honda wants them or not. At least they can get a body on frame pickup out of the deal, and some weird ass styled EVs.
Steve #437828 January 1, 2025 10:16 pm 1
I think it’s Yamaha that recently announced they have a hydrogen powered V-8 that punches out close to 400 hp.
Tykebomb #437719 January 1, 2025 9:41 am 17
There is no economic law that says you have to have a middle class.
Moran ya Simba #437726 January 1, 2025 10:08 am 12
As proven daily by any developing country
LineInTheSand #437751 January 1, 2025 11:52 am 3
Sure, but what does that mean?
Tykebomb #437758 January 1, 2025 12:16 pm 18
It means we aren’t going to have one without some socialism. But not international socialism, but like a national version…. of socialism.In all seriousness, the middle class as we understand it is an artifact of the industrial revolution period. Where mercantilism combined with labor shortages and created a class of people that generated wealth, not through trade or land ownership, but production of things. This further combined withlevee en masseto create the modern iteration of the yoeman farmer of Jeffersonian fame.It just as easily disappeared when free trade opened the borders to let foreigners in (mass migration) and industry out (offshoring). The capitalist need for cheaper production costs has to be actively constrained, which is the broadest definition of socialism.
Alzaebo #437777 January 1, 2025 1:28 pm 6
Extremely well done; brilliantly put, really, but one caveat.National socialism was an intent to defend the nation (not necessarily the lines on the map), while international socialism intends to erase the borders. Not sure where we are with this strange mix of public-private.Light years from the old fasces, that’s for sure.
Alzaebo #437731 January 1, 2025 10:40 am 16
I predict I will find my own ass.Been searching with both hands, but so far…no luck.
Ostei Kozelskii #437800 January 1, 2025 2:40 pm 7
I saw one–a bit bruised and worse for wear–sitting on an ash-heap under an overpass near the Slauson Cutoff out by El Segundo. You might want to check there…
Melissa #437775 January 1, 2025 1:19 pm 14
I’m grateful for the wit, wisdom and insight found on this blog. It would be impossible to quantify everything one can learn here but it might be more than the number of $100 bills Maxine Waters has stuffed into her bra over the years. Happy New Year to Z and commenters. I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas season with family and friends.
Tars Tarkas #437736 January 1, 2025 11:04 am 12
“is the collapse of middle-class wages relative to the labor productivity gains of the last thirty years.”If we’re so productive, where’s all the stuff? Why are we running 75 Billion a month trade deficits? If productivity was measured by widget output, productivity would be down from 30 years ago. Starting in the second half of the 90s, offshoring really took and went ballistic after China was let into the WTO.What role is uncounted inflation playing in this? We under-count inflation, which makes GDP look bigger than it actually is and produces phony record profits (properly adjusted inflation would make the profits smaller).I really don’t know much about what goes into productivity measurements, but it absolutely defies common sense. A productive country ought to have a positive balance of trade.
WillS #437750 January 1, 2025 11:51 am 7
The bean counters in DC have a very loose definition of production.They have increased the productive value of technology inline with “Moore’s Law”. The productive value of tech is not treated with the complexity that it would requie to have any semblence of accuracy. It is impossible to trust any numbers coming from the Fed without seeing the algorythem and even then the inputs could be made up. The numbers say what they want them to say. I question the GDP numbers, they likely include deficit spending as an assett, you got something for it so you are richer. I just assume they are lying.
Tars Tarkas #437806 January 1, 2025 3:00 pm 2
Being a complete ignoramus in the subject, I would assume it is revenue generated per labor hour, at least in a simplified sense. But they lie about literally everything. In many cases, they just make it up wholecloth. The “birth-death” model of employment is a great example. I’m not saying it is totally invalid, but it should always have giant asterisk next to it.My favorite examples are Hedonic adjustments in the inflation index and the Clinton budget surpluses. Both are absolutely ridiculous lies. The budget deficit increased every single year of both the Clinton administration and the Dubya administration. Only at the BLS can you have extra money while going deeper into debt.One particular older example of Hedonic adjustment was a TV that went from like 279 to 329 in the store, but over at the BLS, the price actually dropped 279 to like 229 due to a supposedly better comb filter in the CRT (it is old).Every time I do even a cursory look at some government number, they are always filled with nonsense like this. So there is really no reason to believe we are more productive than 30 years ago when we had far more factories producing consumer goods. If productivity gain means anything, it ought to mean we can create more goods and services with the same amount of labor.
Pozymandias #437829 January 1, 2025 10:48 pm 0
If the productivity numbers are being calculated on the simple basis of net revenue/labor hours, we aren’t necessarily being toldwherethe labor hours are happening. If you have a large American company it might be making almost everything it generates revenue from in China while paying it’s staff in the US itself for various administrative tasks, marketing, sales, etc… Some of that “etc” is of course going to be useless DIE-mandated carbon blobs doing their blobbing.So how do you calculate productivity? Do we add the labor hours for the desk jobs and DIE blobs to the total labor hours? Perhaps we just use the labor hours in the factory in China? My guess is “it depends” meaning they determine the method they use to calculate productivity so they get the number they want. It’s like inflation or any other statistic compiled by the government and its enablers – total bullshit.
Hun #437755 January 1, 2025 12:11 pm 10
My predictions: US will become the 11th province of Canada, with Trudeau as Emperor.EU countries will act independently and the opinions of their politicians will matter.Israel will apologize and dissolve itself.China will finally collapse. This time for real.All businesses will stop producing whatever crap they do and just store Bitcoin and generate infinite money.AI will replace all workers, but only for a short time, before being replaced by Indians.
Compsci #437793 January 1, 2025 2:32 pm 2
This is not a list of predictions…it’s a “wish” list. 😉
Hun #437802 January 1, 2025 2:45 pm 2
Nah. Who would want Emperor Turdeau? Or that last thing. But we don’t always get what we want…
Jack Dobson #437732 January 1, 2025 10:49 am 10
I predicted two years ago that a Cloud would put a hit out on another Cloud. That obviously didn’t happen.* I will reup that one in a modified and safer manner. We will see clearly this year who comprises the members of the obviously warring factions. Whether a mushroom cloud billows over Davos is another matter but hope springs eternal. Incidentally, as we are seeing with the H1B whoring, no one should believe the new group in the pole position is their friend. Legal immigration is even more poisonous than illegal immigration, after all.Second prediction: some of Europe begins to disengage from the GAE after Ukraine collapses. This could include more significant players than Eastern Europe. Blind support for Israel may be the pretext in some cases but the main reason will be disgust.Final prediction: at least one major media outlet goes tits up as people continue to tune them out.*I do not include the attempt of Trump’s life.
Alzaebo #437752 January 1, 2025 12:01 pm 9
“Legal immigration is even more poisonous than illegal immigration, after all.” Boy, if that doesn’t say it all.US /Canada: anchor baby chain migrationEU/Oz: asylum refugee anchor baby chain migration Musk: he should be well familiar with both Indians and Africans, since the British imported the ‘coloured’ Indian class to manage theimmigrantAfricans invited in as cheap labor. Result- with the help of one stubborn Yenta in Parliament against apartheid (keeping the African tribal gangs from murdering each other), eventually the swelling numbers voted themselves into power, with the help of plentiful grenade attacks (by Xhosa prince Mandela).
Alzaebo #437754 January 1, 2025 12:10 pm 9
Epiphany: the small hats (City of London, ultimately) encouraged corporate pathways for Indian imports to come in and manageus,Redneck America. The Viveks and Haleys are our Managerial Coloured class. This wasn’t a “mistake”. The Guptas are still one of the most powerful political families in South Africa; it was Kamala the drunken Tamil’s own grandfather Gopalan who led the overthrow of Rhodesia.
sqzmeus #437826 January 1, 2025 7:21 pm 1
Have you ever read any “Miguel Serrano” ? (perhaps the most incisive South American writer of all time).
Jeffrey Zoar #437781 January 1, 2025 1:44 pm 9
Who had breakout of terrorisms on New Year’s on their bingo card?
Jeffrey Zoar #437749 January 1, 2025 11:47 am 7
This isn’t exactly a prediction, more of a temperature gauge. I think we’ve hit Peak Climate Change. The hoax will die. But it’s too entrenched to die any faster than one funeral at a time.
Compsci #437798 January 1, 2025 2:36 pm 2
There’s too much money involved for CC to die a natural death. Look for it simply to morph into another scam. Perhaps “mitigation” of CC effects, or merge with “sustainability scammers” for immediate purpose.
redbeard #437738 January 1, 2025 11:17 am 6
The religious are reproducing and they will inherit the country.
Hemid #437767 January 1, 2025 12:49 pm 2
Also, they’re not white (except for the Amish). It’ll be great.
Pozymandias #437830 January 1, 2025 10:57 pm 1
Well there are quite a few based White evangelicals. Take Andrew Torba (Gab founder) as an example. There are lots of people following his advice. Some of them might be Christian Zionists but Torba himself certainly isn’t. Overall though, you’re right, lots of the religious people are browns and quite a few are Muslims.
ProZNoV #437735 January 1, 2025 11:00 am 5
Unless the world makes birth control and abortion illegal while heavily sanctioning unmarried whoopie, birth rates will continue to crater. TLDR: Birth rates will continue to crater. Ergo, we need infinity immigrants. it’s been said Rome collapsed “because only the poor could afford children.” The rich spent everything to gain status; the middle just spent what they had to survive.
Jeffrey Zoar #437748 January 1, 2025 11:46 am 3
I don’t know how true the declining sperm count narrative is, whether or not it is well measured. If it is true, then all sociological causes for declining birth rates are meaningless in comparison, and the human race will go extinct, or pretty close.
Compsci #437799 January 1, 2025 2:38 pm 1
Sperm count is a problem for natural insemination. IVF will fill in the gap left by low sperm count. Were just not at that point.
whatever #437753 January 1, 2025 12:05 pm 14
Why is there a goal of an ever increasing number of humans? The US was a better place to live when in had 100M than the 330M plus today. So I’m fine with fewer people.It’s the ponzi economics that push the infinity population scheme, not humanity, which will do just fine if declining population reduces total numbers then stabilizes. Don’t do the global warming thing of taking a short term trend, extrapolate to disaster, then declare an “emergency”.Governments see the population “emergency” with their welfare and retirement schemes running out of people for the bottom of the pyramid, but that is an economic and political issue.I think there are too many people here in the US and on the planet as a whole so am fine with the decline (go travel anywhere in he world and no one thinks what is missing is more people – it’s crowded wherever you go, even off the beaten path).
Alzaebo #437764 January 1, 2025 12:33 pm 8
Screw the rates. It’s the numbers that matter, and those numbers ain’t of the civilized peoples. 100 million Japanese, 200 million white Americans, economic growth tracking native population growth would do fine. The Southern Hemisphere wombs are the problem. In this, the liberal’s “reproductive rights” campaign in the Third World is to be cheered, as was Gate’s African “vaccine” programs. That India or Arabia decided they could breed 1.4 billion into water-choked areas the size of the Western US isn’t our fault. Send ’em all to Africa then. The Northern Peoples aren’t being swamped by infinity Europeans, or Japanese.
Jimmy McNulty #437720 January 1, 2025 9:49 am 5
If it’s losers’time, Bills win Super Bowl.
mmack #437722 January 1, 2025 10:02 am 5
Hey! Let’s not get crazy 😜 here. We’re talking realm of possibilities. KC makes it, beats the Lions, Kelsey proposes to that singer chick he’s dating on the field in the post-game. (Gotta keep the chicks tuning in. 💁🏼‍♀️😉)
Ostei Kozelskii #437804 January 1, 2025 2:54 pm 4
There’s only one thing wrong with that prediction. Instead of proposing after the game, it’ll turn out that one of the refs is actually Swifty. She’ll take off her cap during an instant replay review, the tight end will kneel at midfield, grab a mic from a media schlub, and propose to her then and there. Whereupon Swifty will commence to twerkin’, the tight end will drop his drawers and mount her, followed by all of this teammates. The crowd goes bonkers.
mmack #437820 January 1, 2025 5:03 pm 3
Ostei, YOU ARE A GENIUS! 🤣
thezman #437725 January 1, 2025 10:07 am 18
God hates Buffalo too much to let it happen.
Xman #437741 January 1, 2025 11:30 am 1
For good reason…
The Wild Geese Howard #437821 January 1, 2025 5:06 pm 3
The “Cigarette Smoking Man,” on theX-Fileswasn’t about to let Buffalo win the Super Bowl on his watch: https://youtu.be/NyhAJEPEHk4
Moran ya Simba #437727 January 1, 2025 10:10 am 2
The will win because all the others will drop dead from the bird flu shot
Melissa #437776 January 1, 2025 1:25 pm 6
Buffalo is awful but Josh Allen seems like a good kid.It would be nice for him to win MVP. My son was telling me he hopes Josh Allen wins simply because he is the only NFL player you can actually understand when he speaks.
The Wild Geese Howard #437822 January 1, 2025 5:09 pm 2
The problem with western NY is that you get most of the NY attitude with few of the cultural institutions and you don’t get the general sense of, “we know our city is of international interest so we’re going to be basically pleasant to visitors,” that you receive in NYC.
Redpill Boomer #437761 January 1, 2025 12:19 pm 4
I don’t pretend to understand soccer fans, but in my view there’s no hope for them. Have you ever been overseas and tried to get into a bar during the World Cup?
mmack #437762 January 1, 2025 12:21 pm 3
No, but piggybacking on the H1-B discussions from this week, I know entire IT departments shut down when India hosts cricket 🏏 test matches. 😏
c matt #437889 January 2, 2025 10:54 am 0
While I don’t see soccer getting much more attention in the US, I don’t see the rest of the world dropping soccer anytime soon. I don’t see Americans dropping FootBasketBaseball anytime soon either. Sportsball will continue to roll on.
Carl B. #437817 January 1, 2025 4:40 pm 3
Prediction: More White people than ever start carrying in 2025
Jeffrey Zoar #437818 January 1, 2025 4:55 pm 4
Some good news this New Year’s is that two states I end up in occasionally, SC and LA, as of today no longer require a permit to carry concealed.
Ted X #437730 January 1, 2025 10:40 am 3
2025 Predictions:Trump is about to pull off the mask and go full Obama/Clinton.He will initiate another pandemic lockdown far more destructive than 2020.Mass immigration, both legal and illegal, will skyrocket while Trump tells everyone that it’s going down. The gaslighting will set new standards of insanityA GOP sponsored military draft, called a “temporary surge”, will insert the first 100,000 cannon fodder into the kill zone in Ukraine. The losses will be immediate and horrific prompting the (((government))) to order mass mobilization to ensure muh freedoms.Trump will suffer a “medical event” in the early spring requiring “JD Vance” to “temporarily” take control. A year later Trump will be calling into Fox News, heavily medicated, to flirt with the TV bimbos about making America great again.The stock market volatility becomes so unstable that markets must be shutdown “temporarily”. Jewish-americans will be exempted from trading restrictions and be allowed to liquidate their stocks, real estate and bitcoin and maximum prices.Turkey will declare the New Ottoman empire has arrived and begin conquering most of the middle east including Israel. Israel will officially move its capital to Washington DC.Most christian denominational churches convert to worshipping UFOs, transgender messiahs and begin performing elaborate child sacrifice rituals broadcast to giant video screens on stage at their mega churches.
Hun #437763 January 1, 2025 12:25 pm 2
The stock market volatility becomes so unstable that markets must be shutdown “temporarily”. Jewish-americans will be exempted from trading restrictions and be allowed to liquidate their stocks, real estate and bitcoin and maximum prices. You can’t liquidate, if others can’t trade.
Ploppy #437771 January 1, 2025 1:07 pm 1
They can get bailed out by the government like with Bernie Madoff’s victims.
Hun #437772 January 1, 2025 1:09 pm 1
Then why not just say that?
Compsci #437833 January 1, 2025 11:52 pm 1
”They can get bailed out by the government like with Bernie Madoff’s victims.”Ploppy, your’s is a common misconception wrt government taxpayer bailout of Madoff victims. 97+% of the Madoff victims were made whole, but never through taxpayer funds, but rather through clawbacks and other settlements of those who made illicit profits through the schemes of Madoff. The DOJ of course did supervise the payouts and settlements and seizures.This is also in my memory, but summarized via ChatGPT below:“The fund’s resources primarily originated from settlements with entities and individuals associated with Madoff’s fraudulent activities, rather than from taxpayer money.”
Alzaebo #437774 January 1, 2025 1:15 pm 2
Sure you can. See the subclause allowing their satraps to buy in (at 10 times the actual price.) Gotta keep those managers managing!
Jeffrey Zoar #437778 January 1, 2025 1:28 pm 1
The Gamestop fiasco says you most certainly can liquidate while others can’t trade
Alzaebo #437773 January 1, 2025 1:12 pm 2
My gods. Hun and Ted X aren’t predictions, these areprophecy. Oh yeah? Keep telling me it can’t get any weirder.
Pozymandias #437831 January 1, 2025 11:10 pm 1
Israel will officially move its capital to Washington DC. It’s not a prediction if it’s already happened.
TomA #437733 January 1, 2025 10:49 am 2
As to the declining fertility problem, look no further than the Mouse Utopia Experiment in which abundance begat extinction. The inverse is also true. Extreme hardship motivates fanatical copulation. Yet another validation that the collapse is the cure. As such, 2025 is the year in which the financial disaster chickens come home to roost. It will happen in Europe first. No one will buy their sovereign bonds and declining productivity will not sustain endless fiat money printing. Its either hyperinflation or debt jubilee; take your pick. But fear not, perhaps you too can partake of the fervent fucking that ensues.
Yman #437836 January 2, 2025 8:18 am 1
Rule of merchants made any life form to lowered being without value and meaningGroup who owns the capital are anonymously and secretly enslaves all subjects live under republicMerchant run republic always ends up corruption because capital demands itIt is the nature of capital that corrupts anyone who possesit is no surprised anyone to fact that thousand years of practice of usury made Jews as Satanic Insane ParasiteAt least rule by warrior gave you a chance to be better being and purpose, value, means somethingwarrior society treating weak as humble subject is far more democratic and humane than capital treating citizens as economic unitI predict another year of merchant rule and sudden collapseWest and Western people are so corrupt that even native white lost ability to maintain their societytell you for the hundredth time that human can’t overcome Genetics, and White people have advantages that other race doesn’t haveWhite people still can chose to become a greater being due to their geneticsWhite people can change the Tide of historic turn in their favorit’s their birthright, that no other race ever had
Dutchboy #438030 January 2, 2025 4:51 pm 0
If Trump tells Zelenskyy no more swag then the game is up and Zelenskyy will have to take what he can from Putin (it won’t be much).
Ride-By Shooter #437895 January 2, 2025 11:01 am 0
I hope 2025 will be a year during which Conservative, Inc., must struggle very publiclly, but futilely, to suppress a self-evident truth:Conservatards conserve “Progressivism”The USA has been since her founding a torch bearer of the so-called progress in which merchants and capitalists rule their betters with help solicited from the lower layers of society. Their culture is inherently degrading—the business model requires insatiable craving—and is openly dragging all but one of the peoples of (((Western))) civ to extinction. Thus the struggle of Con, Inc., must be a gigantic gaslighting operation to cover up the awful truth about the genocidal USA.
Maxda #437842 January 2, 2025 9:24 am 0
The Turks will be interesting.Erdogan plays off west versus east, regularly stabbing friends in the back. He just finished betraying Putin, which probably keeps Turkey out of BRICS this year. Will Netanyahu bite off more in the middle east, this time the 2nd biggest military in NATO? Will the Turks pick a fight with Greece? Stay tuned for the next episode of Soap.
DYSPEPSIA GENERATION Blog Archive 2025 Predictions #437837 January 2, 2025 8:48 am 0
[…] ZMan looks ahead. […]
james wilson #437816 January 1, 2025 4:34 pm 0
The Lions were the best team in the NFL but that passed emphatically with multiple injuries to the defense. You have to spend five minutes a week to keep up with the premier sportsball league Zman.
Alzaebo #437760 January 1, 2025 12:19 pm 0
..
Whiskey #437783 January 1, 2025 1:45 pm -6
I hope everyone here has a safe and prosperous New Year.My predictions; fairly good chance Dems pull one of two tricks to install either Harris or Obama: Jaime Raskin’s desire to refuse to certify Trump and install Harris because “insurrection” with enough swamp connected RINOS going along to protect their DOJ / FBI buddies, or delay the Speaker election so no certification can occur, then its Chuck Grassley as President Pro Tem of the Senate as President. Who can appoint Obama as Vice President and then resign. That is exactly the clever/stupid trick Dems like: example putting senile Biden into office.Yes it is possible, at one point the Church had not two but FOUR competing Popes . The Deep State will not put up with even minimal reform from Trump.Much more terrorism, an easy call after New Orleans and the S2 Underground guy has been predicting it for months. Expect more of that.Expect more and more of the subway violence in NYC and just collapse of that system as people use cars, motorcycles, whatever and start carrying (illegally) all sorts of weapons. An easy call.Since Trump likely will not be in office, expect 100,000 troops sent to Ukraine to fight and die, casualties per the Army War College White Paper will be 50K every two weeks. So a Draft is coming, and per the UK trial balloons, will also include White men older that 45 to work War Industries (without pay).Without the stabilizing force of Trump, expect China to take Taiwan and North Korea to take South Korea and China to also occupy parts of Southern Japan and Russia to take part of Alaska and the Aleutians, the latter in concert with China who has a bigger navy than the US. If Trump does take office however some sort of “deal” will be worked out to buy the US space and time to rearm and reindustrialize over 20 years and abandon most of Asia and Europe focusing on Latin America.Turkey and Israel will fight, and Europe will come in (in very minor ways) on Turkey’s side to avoid Islamic Revolutions on their soil.England and Ireland and Germany will be ruled by what amounts to an Islamic Republic in all but name. France will have a formal Islamic Republic. About 50 million Muslims and Africans will pour into Europe next year due to the fighting and weakness of Europe.The larger internal War in the West between owners and those associated with them: Musk, Thiel, Bezos, etc. vs the Top Bureaucrats or Eternal Committee Chairs: Victoria Nuland, Liz Cheney, Nancy Pelosi, Obama etc. will only intensify as the bureaucrats do the usual clever/stupid sneaky thing and demand like Cartman to “respec mah authoritah!” As usual the people will not matter as they have never mattered ever.
c matt #437881 January 2, 2025 10:46 am 1
Don’t know about the rest, but I don’t see Trump failing to take office. Public does not appear in the mood for such BS, israel needs White bodies for its wars, and there are plenty of other ways to effectively control Trump to the extent he doesn’t fink on his base. Oh yeah, that reminds me – Trump will fink on his base. Only promises he will keep is doing israel’s bidding, and maybe winding down Ukraine war . . . eventually . . . while closely monitoring the situation.
Dutchboy #438036 January 2, 2025 5:23 pm 0
He’s started already just to get a jump on things.


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