Israel’s efforts to start a regional war in the Middle East took a big step forward when they murdered a Hamas official in Tehran and another in Beirut. The murder of Fuad Shukr in Lebanon is something the Israelis have been doing for a long time, but the missile attack killing Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran is both a clear violation of international law and a provocative escalation. Taken together it suggests that the Israelis want a war with Iran and are doing everything they can to provoke it.

The puzzle is why are they are doing this, especially now when it is clear that Washington is in turmoil and the American empire is stretched thin. Joe Biden is at best a caretaker at the moment. Netanyahu met with him last week, so he must know that Biden is a vegetable. He also has to know that it is not clear who will be in the White House six months from now. The only thing certain is it will be a new team running foreign policy, regardless of the results.

It may be that Netanyahu calculates that if the next administration inherits a regional war in the Middle East, they will have little choice but to continue whatever policy they inherit, so it is best to get everything in place now. It is not as if the Israelis do not have control of both parties. The neocons may think Trump wins the election, so leaving him with a regional war will cripple his term before it gets started. As a result, they are telling the Israelis to start the war.

Another theory floating around is that the Israelis have determined that Iran does not want a war right now, so their response to these moves will be limited. The Israelis can literally get away with murder, as long as the people they are targeting are not Iranian officials or important Iranian citizens. The two people they just murdered have been on their kill list for a long time. Targeted assassinations have always been a part of the Israeli toolkit, despite the civilized world’s protests.

Along the same lines, the Israelis may be looking at the way things are shaping up in the neighborhood and think they have to flip over the board with a war. Russia and Iran have close ties. China is now building relations with Iran. This has led the Saudis to end the petro-dollar agreement and begin to normalize relations with Iran now that they are both in BRICS. A new regional order is forming up where Russia and China supplant the American empire as the patron.

From the Israeli perspective, this is a catastrophe. Both Russia and China are wise to how the Israelis operates, and they have no Israel lobby in their countries. While both countries have always tried to maintain good relations with Israel, they both see Israel as part of the Global American Empire. It is not all that clear if they understand how the neocons use Zionism as a cover, but they certainly understand that Israel is a launching pad for American shenanigans in the region.

Instability has always been part of the Israel playbook too. Whether it is exploiting rivalries between its neighbors or rivalries inside its neighbors, the game has always been to maximize regional instability. This not only keeps the Arab countries on shaky ground, but it keeps the American empire involved. A war with Iran that draws in other Arab countries, thus forcing the American empire to get directly involved maximizes uncertainty and instability in the region.

One final possibility here is that the neocons may have decided that the Ukraine project is hopeless, so it is time to open a new front. Russia has strong relations with Iran, so war between the American empire and Iran would inevitably force the Russians to provide support to Iran. This would fit with the overall strategy laid out by the Rand Corporation five years ago and the philosophical outlook of the neocons going back to the end of the Cold War.

The question no one asks is if the American empire could wage a war against Iran and whether it could survive it. For decades it has just been assumed that the empire will win any war with any nation if it so chooses. A big part of the mythos of the American war machine is the assertion that the only wars the empire has “lost” are those it chose not to fight to win. This started with Vietnam and has been a fog that rests over any analysis of American war capacity.

The Ukraine war revealed this to be a myth. American wonder weapons either failed to live up to their promise or were quickly neutralized by the Russians. More importantly, NATO has been exposed as a paper tiger with regards to its ability to manufacture the sorts of weapons necessary for a long war. You can also throw in the failure to suppress the Houthis with expensive bombing campaigns. Clearly, the rest of the world learned something from thirty years of American war making.

Iran does not have the military industrial capacity of Russia, but it does have the support of Russia and China. Iran can also count on Syria and Iraq to help deliver weapons and men to the border of Israel. She can also count on OPEC not coming to the rescue when oil prices double overnight. In other words, whatever the motivations, a regional war that drags in the American empire to fight Iran could very well be a catastrophe for the American empire.

What all of this points to is exhaustion. The Israeli political culture is a chaotic mess that shows all the signs of being a spent force. It is a bunch of old guys living in the past, trying to cling onto life and power. This is not much different from the state of play in Washington, where it is a political class trapped in the last century. The flailing about that now defines imperial foreign policy is the result of yesterday men unable to come to terms with the reality of current age.

If this comes to pass, the American empire would not be the first to face its mortality in the Middle East. The Romans eventually learned that the Middle East was more trouble than it was worth. Perhaps it also spells the end of the Zionist project. It has been eighty years since the birth of the Zionist state, so maybe they are about to succumb to the curse of the eight decade. Of course, the Global American Empire is in its eighth decade as well, so maybe there is something to it.

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