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We tend to think of wars as isolated stand-alone events, but in reality, most wars are a part of a long process. A new power is on the rise and seeks to exploit its new status at the expense of other nations around it. The eventual war formalizes its new relationship among those nations. Wars can also reveal an underlying change in relations among nations that is not easy to see until there is war. That is what we are seeing with the war in Ukraine, which is well into its second year.

With the war in Ukraine, Americans fall into three buckets. The vast majority of people are not particularly interested. If they think of it at all it is in the context of another political boondoggle. Then you have the regime toadies who reflexively support giving the store away to Ukraine. These are hyper-partisan people who think what the party tells them to think. The final group are the realists who see the war as another neocon project that promises to end in disaster.

In Europe it is a far different matter. The pro-EU camp is the majority and totally onboard with the Ukraine project. They see this as an extension of the EU project to bring all of Europe into the post-nationalist world. Then you have the conservatives who are small in number and sound like American dissidents. They are skeptical of the Ukraine project and see it as another power grab by the EU elite. These are the voices calling for dialogue and negotiations.

There is a third group, the nationalists, that are unique to Europe. These are people who are opposed to the European project on strictly nationalist grounds. In the small countries, these people are fanatically behind Ukraine, mostly because they are spasmodically anti-Russia. It is not so much that they support Ukraine in the war but that they hate Russia. They see Azov as an example for themselves. For them, nationalism has become opposition to Russia.

There is a big caveat here. The nationalists from the traditional major powers, countries like Britain, France, Italy and even Germany, are more like American dissidents in that they see the war in nationalist versus internationalist terms. For them, Ukraine is just another project of the Global American Empire. The EU is tagging along because it is what they always do when they see a chance to grow their power. They also have a sympathetic view of Russia in this conflict.

The gap between these two camps within the European nationalist space reflects a much larger divide that cannot be closed. This post by Scandinavian nationalist Frodi Midjord gives a sense of it. The tone and content are what an American expects from the neocon critics of dissidents. The content operates in a reality that it is outside the reality of even pro-Ukrainian supporters in America. Frodi’s starting place is an entirely different conception of the reality of the war.

That starting place is the moral framing. Small nation nationalists, like Frodi, see Russia as the only villain. For no reason at all, this multi-racial empire invaded Ukraine in order to crush their nationalist dreams. Large nation nationalists, like American dissidents, see the war as another globalist project. They point to the many regime change operations over the last decades and see Ukraine, which also got the regime change treatment in 2014, as a continuation of that trend.

This explains the nasty, hyperbolic tone of that post. From his point of view, Tucker represents that other side, the nationalists and American dissidents who view Russia as just another country dealing with the empire. For him, it is not about facts and reason, but about the moral framing. If you see Russia as anything but the locus of evil, then you are on the wrong side of the issue. You see the same tone from Greg Johnson, who is close to the small nation nationalists.

Again, this difference in moral framing with regards to the war in Ukraine is reflective of much larger differences in general. The most obvious is between American dissidents and European nationalists. The nature of America means that European style nationalism is an alien concept. American nationalism is impossible for obvious reasons, but even white nationalism is unworkable. There is simply too much diversity within white America to make it work.

Here is a reality that is hard for Americans to accept. America, as in North America or even the New World, is not Europe. North America, to limit things a bit, is a different civilization than Europe. It was built by Europeans, but by and for a different sort of European than exists on the continent. While there is a lot of shared culture and history, it is not enough to overcome the differences. Europeans cannot understand North American civilization because they are not us.

In Europe itself, we see a similar gap between the small nation nationalists and the big nation nationalists. The former group’s identity as nationalists is always in the shadow of the latter nations, which have a history of invading them. Survival for small nations is always about navigating around the large nations. For the large nations, survival is never really the question. Instead, their nationalist impulses are directed to their relative status among the great powers of the world.

It is why micronations like Estonia and Finland are boiling with passion about beating Russia in the Ukraine war. They have thrown their lot in with the EU, which means the Global American Empire. They see the world as a choice between masters, so their nationalism is about picking the best master. French nationalists, in contrast, see the choice as between a master and no master. They have no fear of Russia, but they do see the Global American Empire as a real threat.

As the Global American Empire continues to decline, the gap between American sensibilities and European ones will become too big to ignore. This will become apparent in the next year as the war weighs on Europe. At some point, European elites will have to make a choice. They can continue to follow the Americans into the abyss or make a break and look out for their own interests. The concept of the West existing on both sides of the Atlantic will come into question.

In Europe, the logic of the EU will come under pressure. How reasonable is it for France, Italy, and Germany to take advice from Estonia? Why is Poland enjoying the benefits of the EU when it is Germany and France that make it possible? Why is Hungary in the EU and Britain outside of it? Why is Germany bankrupting itself over Ukraine just to pacify Latvia? The war is exposing the vast difference in world view between small Europe and big Europe.

In the end, the coming crackup of the West is really just a return to the natural order of things that should have happened in the 20th century. The Continent has always been defined by France, Germany, and Italy. As the American empire recedes, those three nations can reclaim their place atop Europe. The smaller nations will return to doing what they must, and the periphery will return to the periphery. The great crackup will return the West back to its natural order.

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