The DeSantis Dud
When Governor Ron DeSantis announced that he was running for the Republican Party nomination, it seemed like the predictions where true. He was going to be the antidote to Trump, if not Trumpism. For a few weeks everyone was talking about this guy as if he was a viral video. Then all of a sudden, he disappeared. The media stopped covering him, other than when he insulted their sacred cows. His social media influencers are desperate for attention but are mostly ignored.
There were two schools of thought on DeSantis. One school said he would run as Trump without Trumpism, meaning without the antics. He would make the case for the same issues but do so in a more conventional manner. The other school of thought said he would be the Ted Cruz of the race. He would stake out a position just inside Trump so he would not scare the sissies, but he would still get some respect from the more hardcore members of the party voting base.
Both options rested on an assumption that Trump eventually would be removed from the nomination process. Maybe the regime would put him jail. Maybe the weight of the many indictments would force him to quit. Perhaps the Republican Party would combine the two and change the rules to exclude Trump. Regardless of how, the underlying logic of the DeSantis campaign rested on Trump being eliminated. DeSantis was running as the guy who comes after that event.
Instead, DeSantis has staked out a third path, the boring path. Rather than being Trump-lite or being a kinder, gentler Trump, he is Ned Flanders. A look at his YouTube page explains why no one talks about DeSantis. His lead video is titled “America is Worth the Fight” which is what you expect from a white box consulting firm that creates generic videos for local politicians on a budget. It is the sort of ad Republicans in safe suburban districts run when a Democrat is in the White House.
After getting some heat from the usual suspects for the ad tying Trump to the pride campaigns, they deleted that ad and rolled out the “Mammas for DeSantis” ad campaign that some idiot consultants thinks are clever. They think it is clever because they think the people who vote in Republican primaries are morons. They also repeatedly use the bot-phrase “game changer” in their media campaign around these new videos, which is what you get from consultants.
What the campaign is telling us so far is they have no idea why DeSantis is running, and they have no idea who will be voting in the election. The campaign is being run by people who exist in the Potemkin village that serves as the imperial capital and all of them think if they wish hard enough, it will be 2012 again. That was the peak of the political class, where their manufactured man, Barak Obama, had won reelection over the least authentic human on earth, Mitt Romney.
The results are what you expect from such a dreary campaign. A state poll released yesterday is a good indication of what is happening. Trump now leads DeSantis in Florida by twenty points. Sure, Trump has a big presence in the state, but DeSantis is the sitting governor and he just won reelection in a landslide. The voters there like him and want to like him. What this suggests is they like him as their governor, but they do not like the idea of him being president.
This is the pattern everywhere. In state after state, DeSantis has seen his polling settle into the low-20% range. After people got to see him, they were not impressed, and his initial support has started to drain away. The main reason, of course, is he is not answering the only question that matters in this primary, “why should you vote for anyone other than Donald Trump?” If you cannot provide an answer, the answer is provided for you, and it is not a good answer.
What voters are seeing thus far is that DeSantis is not a risk taker. He is instinctively a cautious guy. Instead of roaring out of the gate with an affirmative campaign based on a set of key issues he thinks are important, he is rolling out a message that has been market-tested by the same people who get hired by fast food chains to market test their latest ad campaign. Inevitably, they lean toward avoiding controversy as no consultant ever gets fired for being too cautious.
The first debate is six weeks away, so the DeSantis people have time to retool the campaign in order to reintroduce their guy to the country. As it stands, the people on the stage will be Trump, DeSantis, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence and maybe Chris Christie. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum is trying to buy his way on stage through some sort of gift card scheme. Trump has hinted that he could skip this debate, or he might be in jail by then.
Assuming no changes, this is a one-shot deal for DeSantis. Ramaswamy will steal the show with his Kwiki Mart act. He will avoid attacking Trump and instead spend his time telling older white people that they are the best. Christie will be a fat loudmouth who will spend his time insulting Trump. The midgets will be boring extras. In other words, DeSantis is going to have to find a way to get attention, without sounding like a kook while also providing an affirmative case for himself.
What this will require is risk taking. Over the next six months his campaign should be rolling out ads that send the regime media into orbit, while his campaign refuses to talk to them about anything. Instead, DeSantis spends the time shaking hands, talking shop, and building relationships with the locals in Iowa and New Hampshire. This creates anticipation for the debate and will bait the moderators into focusing on him and his provocative ads, while he calmly answers their questions.
There are no signs that this will happen or could happen. Chance favors the bold and so far, his campaign has been everything but bold. Their campaign is based on something removing Trump from the ballot before people start voting. That is why DeSantis may not make it past New Hampshire. If your success depends on others acting in your interests, you are unlikely to succeed. Winners take risks because they are not afraid to lose. The DeSantis campaign is too afraid to win.
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