“Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth” is a famous quote from Sherlock Holmes. While it can easily lead to the logical fallacy called the false dilemma, it is useful in arriving at a set of possible solutions to a problem. You first remove the answers that are impossible then think about the range of solutions that remain. It may not yield the exact right answer, but at least you avoid the wrong answer.

Such is the case with the Russian coup. Last weekend the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced he was going to march on Moscow with his troops and forcibly remove the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu. He quickly amended that claim to saying he was staging “a march for justice” to demand the removal of Shoigu and his top deputy Valery Gerasimov. Then a few thousand of his men drove up the highway toward Moscow, stopping at a nearby city.

Some sort of negotiation was initiated by the Kremlin, which led to a deal brokered by the head of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko. The “coup leaders”, including Prigozhin, would not be arrested. Instead, they would head off to Belarus with a contingent of the Wagner fighters. Presumably, these are the fighters who went with Prigozhin. The rest of the Wagner groups would be offered a deal to sign contracts with the Russian military or go back to civilian life.

In the history of military coups, this is the weirdest. An ironclad rule of putting down coup attempts is you punish the leaders of the coup in such a way that terrifies anyone thinking about staging a coup. The ghoulish punishments of the past came about in response to attempts to topple the king. The English used hanged, drawn and quartered, for example, as a special punishment for treason. Cutting open the traitor and pulling out his internals while still alive made a big impression.

Prigozhin going into semi-retirement in Belarus does not make much sense if he was staging a genuine coup. Whatever he was up to, the Kremlin has decided that his goal was not regime change at the top. Further, they decided that no one else thought it was a genuine coup either, so they were free to be lenient. In fact, it appears that the Kremlin has decided that extreme leniency serves their interests. Whatever happened here, we can reasonably assume it was not a coup attempt.

Another possibility is that this is some sort of four-dimensional chess maneuver to get the Wagner group into Belarus. From there they can attack Kiev. We can eliminate this option as the number of Wagner forces headed to Belarus is small, just a few thousand, so they are not attacking anything by themselves. To attack Kiev, you would need several hundred thousand troops. Kiev is a huge city with lots of defenses and tens of thousands of Ukrainian forces in and around it.

We can probably eliminate the other 4-D chess theories as well. The Russians are not fond of these sorts of public relations stunts. If for example, the Kremlin wanted to get rid of Prigozhin, they would not put on a show like this. Similarly, if Putin were looking for a way to sure up his position with regards to the hardliners, he would not risk letting them stage a coup. The right answer lies within the domain of people acting in what they thought was their own interests.

Starting from the least likely, the first possibility is that Prigozhin was operating as some sort of double agent. He was talking with Washington about staging a coup or maybe he was talking to the Ukrainians. In reality he was working with Moscow to help flush out some conspirators in the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin’s march to Moscow was his final favor to Putin before he heads off to retirement. The drama worked as cover for the Kremlin as they rounded up the real conspirators.

This is possible, but very much in the four-dimensional chess zone, so it is probably the least likely answer. Putin’s position is secure, so he would not have to do this sort of Game of Thrones stuff to deal with troublemakers. He has made plenty of personnel changes during the last year, so he could arrest a couple of traitors. That and there has been no word on anyone being arrested. Russia is a modern country. If someone important disappears, everyone soon knows about it.

There is the possibility Prigozhin went mad. Like Colonel Kurtz, he lost touch with reality and this half-baked coup was the result. The fact that most of his troops refused to participate is an important data point. According to reliable sources, only a few thousand Wagner fighters went on the march. Given the increasingly erratic behavior of Prigozhin and his prior insane statements, this is a strong possibility. He went mad and the Kremlin simply found a peaceful way to manage it.

A similar and slightly more plausible option is that Prigozhin allowed his dispute with Shoigu to get the better of him. His genuine complaints about the conduct of the war were spoiled by his public airing of those complaints. His support within the military collapsed and he found himself with two bad options. One was wait to be fired and the other was to force his way into a better deal. In the end he gets to retire in a form of house arrest in neighboring Belarus.

Another version of this is that Prigozhin misjudged his support within the Kremlin, and he overestimated his public support. He made his move thinking he had a strong hand but once he reached Rostov, reality became clear to him. The reason the Kremlin quickly offered him a golden bridge out of his predicament, is they were confident they had the situation in hand. It also suggests they anticipated this was a possibility and were ready to end it without bloodshed.

Further support of this option is the way the Kremlin quickly moved to offer Prigozhin a way out of his dilemma. Russian forces had already circled Wagner at Rostov, with the Chechens on their way as a sign of unity. It was if they anticipated this possibility and not only prepared a response but had time to consider how it would look to their friends and allies. Independent polling also suggests this went over very well with the Russian people. Putin’s popularity is at a record high.

While the evidence suggests Prigozhin either acted from madness or hubris, there is one wrinkle that is worth mentioning. The usual suspects rushed out to post their fantasy version of what was happening as the events were unfolding. Many stated that they knew about this plot all along. Senior Kagan cult member Anne Applebaum had a narrative out on the first day. Note that her husband, a Polish diplomat, posted on Twitter about the Nord Stream bombing as it happened.

The Russians have used this to claim that Prigozhin may have been working with outside forces, strongly suggesting Washington was involved. The Biden people have been rushing around to deny these claims. The reason is they see that it will give the Kremlin an excuse to escalate in response. Yesterday the Russians bombed a hotel in Kramatorsk, which housed foreign mercenaries. The subsequent video revealed a lot of Americans digging through the rubble.

It has been clear for a while that the hardliners are not happy with the pace of the war, but Putin has been reluctant to go harder on Ukraine. He has also been the least bellicose of the Russian leaders with regards to Washington. Putin has always been in the dovish camp regarding the West. This Prigozhin incident may have opened a road for Putin to take toward the hawks. This Kramatorsk attack could be the start of a new period of escalation by Moscow.

In the end, we do not know the real story behind these events. All we can do is eliminate the impossible. Once you do that, we are left with a picture of the Russian leadership that is trying to avoid World War Three, but also balancing internal politics in order execute a war of attrition with the West. The end result of this Prigozhin incident will not be the end times as imagined by the Kagan cult, but it could lead to a more aggressive stance by Moscow toward the West.

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