The Russo-NATO war in Ukraine appears to be headed to some sort of final act or perhaps the penultimate act that sets the stage for the final act. All along the line of contact, the Russians are pressing the Ukrainians, slowly grinding down the defenses and advancing in key areas. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians talk endlessly about the spring offensive when they will deploy the much ballyhooed Western main battle tanks that have been slowly arriving since January.

Since last summer, it has been clear that the main battle in the Donbas would be in and around the city of Bakhmut. This is the lynchpin of the so-called Zelensky line that runs from Siversk in the north to Vuhledar in the south. Some say the southern end of this defense line is Marinka or Avdivka, which are strongholds to the West of the city of Donetsk, the capital of the Donetsk oblast. This is where the revolt against the Washington puppet regime began in 2014.

Regardless, there are three main battles going on at the moment. In Bakhmut, the Russians have the city surrounded and control about seventy percent of the city itself, while the Ukrainians have an estimated ten to fifteen thousand fighters in the city with up to forty thousand in the surrounding area. Reports from Ukrainian say that they are sending some of their best troops to Bakhmut in a relief effort, but that could just be what they are telling the West.

In the Donetsk region, the Russians have just about surrounded the garrison in Avdivka, having fire control over all of the main roads. No one knows how many Ukrainian soldiers are in this area. The Ukrainian deployment map shows up to five brigades, but these maps are not always up to date or accurate. Reports from the ground suggest up to ten thousand soldiers, but many of them are probably conscripts. The real value of this fortress is that is controls the southern part of the line.

What has been happening for the last few months is that the Zelensky government has been throwing everything they have into defending this line, even though their military and the Pentagon have advised against it. Logic says to withdraw to preserve men and machines, while putting together a counteroffensive. Politics, however, says the Ukrainians cannot afford to give up any land as it would risk losing support from European politicians, who are getting nervous.

It is that growing sense of dread in European capitals that is undermining support for the Ukrainian side in this war. There is growing unrest throughout Europe as a result of the economic problems caused by the sanctions war. Then there is the banking and energy crisis that has been hidden from the public, but is not going away no matter how hard they ignore it. The bigger issue is fear that the Russians could stoke unrest, as Tom Sunic explains in this post.

Of course, there is the practical problem of supplying weapons to Ukraine. Land wars are supply chain and industrial capacity wars. Russia has better supply chains and more military industrial capacity than NATO. Western countries cannot make anywhere near enough munitions to keep Ukraine going, so they have had to clear out their warehouses, which are now close to empty. One way or another, the war will be over this year, as the West is simply out of weapons.

Then we have the China issue. Xi Jinping’s recent state visit to Moscow caused panic in Europe because it makes clear that China is never going to sign onto the new world order proposed by the West. French President Emmanuel Macron was sent to Beijing to beg for mercy. He came back and immediately signed a trade deal with China in which the French will buy LNG using yuan. That LNG, by the way, is sourced from Russia, thus blowing another hole in the sanctions regime.

That energy deal is just one deal, but the symbolism is what matters, as it makes clear who has the whip hand now. Decades of bribing American officials has taught the Chinese how important narrative and symbolism is to Washington. By making Macron do that deal, they are telling Washington that China is willing to compete with Washington on every continent, even Europe. It also signals that Europe is very worried about what is happening to them in this war.

On the Russian side it is hard to know how they view things in terms of time lines and the looming end game. The experts all said the Russians would launch a winter offensive after calling up close to half a million troops in the fall, but instead they have been content to build fortifications and logistics hubs. Meanwhile, Wagner and units from the Donbas have been taking the fight to Ukraine. Western experts are suddenly quiet about what they think the Russians will do next.

The most likely answer here is the Russians have determined that there is no need for a big offensive at this time. The dynamics of the fighting favor them and they have minimized their losses while maximizing Ukrainian losses. They can also see the deteriorating condition of Europe, both politically and economically. You can be sure that there are lots of back channel conversations happening between politicians in Europe and their friends in Moscow.

The Russians have spent months building defenses in the south and that suggests they think this is where the much talked about Ukrainian counter offensive will happen, if it happens at all. It is increasingly clear that this will be Ukraine’s last chance to reverse the decline in support from Europe. The calculation by the Russians may be to wait for this attack in the south, defeat it and then wait for the political fallout to force the Ukrainians back to the bargaining table.

There is also the fact that the war will end and Russia will have to do business with Western Europe again. How the Ukraine war ends will determine how difficult it will be to patch up relations. From the Russian perspective, it is best for Europe to break from Washington and force Zelensky to sign the paper put in front of him. The Europeans save face and the Russians have international recognition for taking possession of the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine.

While the war is not close to being over, it is clear that the end game is slowly starting to form up as winter gives way to spring. The big talk about Ukraine sacking Moscow is a thing of the past. Slowly the talk is shifting to what happens after the war. Given the geopolitical changes that have come about as a result of the war, what comes next is not going to be a return to the status quo ante. What the world looks like a year from now when the war is over is up for debate.

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