The first Republican debates for the 2024 election will be in about six months, which means the field will be shaping up in the next few months. Trump has already declared, along with zombies like Nikki Haley and John Bolton. Tim Scott is supposed to join the zombies shortly, along with Mike Pompeo. There is rumor that former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson is contemplating a run. Team zombie will be well represented on the debate stage next fall.

The big name everyone is waiting on is Ron DeSantis. He is doing all of the things that a presidential candidate does when he is seriously thinking about a run. He has gone on tour to important states to give speeches. He has a book out about himself and what he claims to believe. This being the social media age, he has a team for that and a collection of paid influencers. That last bit is unspoken but it is becoming common for so-called influencers to sell their services.

Of course, the unpaid influencers and clout chasers are jumping into the act, siding with Trump against DeSantis or DeSantis against Trump. It speaks to the ridiculousness of the zombie wing of the party that their influencers are all retirees down at the Villages who still have National Review subscriptions. Putting that aside, you have the usual on-line suspects doing their thing to get attention for themselves while ostensibly getting attention for their preferred candidate.

It has been an article of faith that winning the social media war is the same as winning the fight in the real world. There is no evidence to support this, other than post hoc claims about the role of influencers. Douglas Mackey is facing ten years in prison based on the claim that his mocking of Hillary Clinton caused her voters to think they could vote for her by text message. There is no evidence to support this, but people now think social media is a form of magic.

Putting that aside, the evidence suggests that the virtual world of Twitter is disconnected from the world of reality. How often has someone mentioned to you in real life something they saw trending on Twitter? The fact is, unless you are really into Twitter, Twitter does not matter. Facebook groups and local on-line groups matter somewhat, but people join these groups because they already agree with the general theme of the group, so it is about confirmation bias.

We are already getting a taste of this with Trump-DeSantis. There is a large on-line vote that is still angry about Trump not being their God-Emperor. Ann Coulter is their queen and various influencers are vying to become the king of this group. Then you have the tribe that always goes for the latest thing, so they have their claims in favor of new and hip DeSantis over the old and tired Trump. Of course, the finks of conservatism are pretending to like DeSantis.

So far none of this matters. All of the polling shows Trump has a huge lead over the field in the key demographics. He comes with the built in advantage of answering the two essential questions every candidate must first answer. “This is who I am and this is why you should vote for me.” The rest of the field has to answer both of those questions, which is not easy in a crowded media world. DeSantis has the shortest road, but he is still an unknown to most of the voters.

This is where another question will be answered. The Republican leadership has been sure that Trump is done for a while now. They threw the midterms as proof that Trump no longer has influence over voters. It is a good example of how they get high off their own narratives. They are playing nice with DeSantis thinking he can be the final nail in the Trump coffin. Trump voters will be tempted to accept the compromise of DeSantis in order to get support from the party elite.

This probably would have worked in 2016. If the party had rallied to Ted Cruz early in the process, he most likely would have won. This time it may be the opposite where any support from party leaders is toxic. We are already seeing populist paranoia about DeSantis on key issues like foreign policy. DeSantis and the field may be faced with an additional hurdle. That is, they will have to prove to voters that they are not going to fink on them like every other Republican has done for generations.

Put another way, this may be the crackup of the Republican Party. A sizable chunk of their vote no longer trusts the party. The party leaders and donors no longer trust the voters, especially the Trump wing. If the gap is large enough, it means no candidate can stand across it and get the trust of both sides. Any effort to do so creates doubts on both sides of the divide. A couple generations of finking on their voters may finally have cracked this coalition of the desperate.

Of course, the shadow over all of this is the sense of futility. As more people come to terms with the electoral map, the less enthusiasm there is for the process of finding an electoral solution to our problems. With key states having been fortified for democracy, it is just about impossible for a Republican to win now. This is why the political class is not vexed with the Democrats running a vegetable. They put John Fetterman in the Senate, so they can re-elect Joe Biden.

As America transitions into a one-party authoritarian state, this election will have the feel of a final chapter. The old folks will get to reminisce about how these things used to matter and lament the passing of an age. The rest will find a way to fight the inevitable frustration over the lack of anyway to do something about it. Many, of course, will pretend that it is all on the level. They will blame the voters for electing a political class that is corrupt and feckless.

This will be an election at the end of time. Not the end of all time, but the end of this phase of the American experience. The current political and cultural arrangements are not working and that is becoming increasingly clear to people. This election promises to be ridiculous enough to drive home that point. It will also become increasingly clear that the older generation is just hoping to run out the clock. The rest will soon be left to contemplate what comes next.

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