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Because we live in an age of over-specialization, we do no get a lot of discussion about the interplay of politics and war making. We get people focused on the political dimension of the Ukraine war and we have people discussing the facts on the ground, but very little about how the two sides interact. It is a lot like how the economy is discussed in isolation from politics.

Usually, the road to understanding what is happening in something like the Ukraine war passes through both domains. There is a political aspect that impacts the war making side, but the war shapes the politics. The Great War is a perfect example of how these two forces interacted to create a disaster. A century on and we are seeing something similar unfold in this war between Moscow and Washington.

For example, one reason we are in this long war of attrition is the Russians misread their own domestic politics and the international politics. If a few years ago they looked at the developing crisis on their border and if they understood the people behind it a bit better and had a better read on their internal politics, they probably would have prepared for a massive, overwhelming response.

Instead, the Russians were concerned about doing anything that would cause the West to retaliate and escalate. This is something Putin discussed last year when Washington launched the massive economic assault. To his credit, he admitted that they misread things and were not as prepared as they should have been for what Washington would do in response to Moscow’s concerns about Ukraine.

Fast forward a year and we see how politics are shaping the battlefield in a way that harms the Ukrainians. Zelensky, with the help of the Kagan cult, has created a narrative of the Ukrainians holding out against the Russian onslaught. They are the defenders of the wall between democracy and barbarism. Western political leaders have no choice but to support Ukraine on moral grounds.

This has created a dynamic in which the Ukrainians are constrained in what they can do on the battlefield in order to maintain this political narrative. For example, they cannot do as the Russians do and abandon land in order to preserve resources. it would not be much of a wall if they were always in retreat. Instead, they have to keep throwing precious resources into places like Bakhmut.

What we keep seeing is terrible military decisions preceding or coinciding with big political events in the West. The refusal to abandon Soledar preceded Zelensky coming to Washington for his big speech. It took weeks for Ukraine to acknowledge the reality on the ground. Ukraine had to maintain appearances until the political events were finished, despite the loss of men and material.

We are seeing a similar process take place in Bakhmut. The Kagan cult wants the West to commit modern battle tanks. This will necessitate other assets, maybe even airpower, so Ukraine is being forced to hold Bakhmut. Meanwhile, the Russians pound away at the defenders who have little chance to fight back. Credible reports suggest Ukraine in losing a thousand men a day in the futile defense of Bakhmut.

Of course, the bigger political problem is the narrative the Kagan cult has created around Ukraine prevents talking to the Russians. Zelensky is not allowed to speak with the Russians or even mention the idea. Victoria Nuland is going around telling Western audiences that the plan is to drive out the Russians, force regime change in Moscow and then break up Russia.

Now, the Kagan cult hates Slavic people so they are happy to see millions of Ukrainians die in their war on the Russian people. You can see, however, that by letting this bloodthirsty death cult shape the politics, it is limiting what the military planners can do on the ground in Ukraine. They have no choice but to keep feeding men and machine into the Russian meatgrinder setup along the front.

The Russians seem to have sorted this, which is why we are not seeing the big offensive everyone was predicting. They see how the political dynamic is limiting what the Ukrainians can do on the ground. At some point, the politics will force the Ukrainians to launch a counter-attack to maintain the narrative. The Russians are probably preparing to take advantage of that to destroy more of the Ukrainian army.

There we see another area where politics is shaping the war. Russia is now operating as if this is a global conflict with the West. A big bloody offensive that could unleash unknown forces is bad for that global political process. No one can say how the West will react to a sudden collapse of the Ukrainian army. The prudent approach is to grind it down slowly and carefully to avoid new problems.

Even so, what is emerging is a gap between the political narrative and reality on the ground, which will become impossible to ignore this summer. Like the Athenians learning about the Sicilian catastrophe, many in Western capitals will start to understand what is really happening in Ukraine. This will require a new political narrative to explain what went wrong.

Interestingly, this is similar to what happened after the Great War. The people on both sides felt betrayed by their leaders. What was the point of the war? What was the point of the massive sacrifices endured by both sides? The winners could at least claim it was to preserve democracy, thank you Woodrow Wilson. The losers, however, were left to figure it out on their own and a new narrative eventually emerged.

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