Back in 1976 the argument against Reagan and conservatives in general was they could not win. It was not an unreasonable argument, given what happened to Goldwater in 1964. Nixon winning in 1968 seemed to reinforce the idea that the winning hand for the GOP was a hawkish liberalism versus the Democrat’s dovish liberalism. For conservatives and libertarians that was a revolting development, but political parties are about winning elections and distributing the spoils to their supporters.

The funny thing is this debate rarely happens with Democrats. The American media is far to the Left of the party on most issues. The cultural elites are way out there where the buses don’t run. They lose faith in the Democrats now and again, but they have no problem yanking the party back over to the Left every decade. In the 1970’s Ted Cruz would have been a typical Democrat. In the 1980’s he would have been a moderate Democrat. Today he is extreme right wing Republican.

Since 2008 the GOP has been locked in a battle between the Wets and Dries of the party. The fight is between those who wish to strike deals with the Left and those who want to take a pipe to Nancy Pelosi. In 2010, Tea Party types who lost were held up by the Wets as an example of their side’s argument. Mitt Romney was waved around by the Dries after 2012 as an example of why you can’t win with a limp noodle.

History, polling and logistics say the GOP should wipe the floor with the Democrats in November. Obama is less popular than Bush in 2006, according to some polls. The Wets made sure they had their people in keys races so they would not be derailed by a weirdo claiming to be a witch or an old perv talking about rape.You can’t come up with a better scenario for the Wets than what they have right now. If they win the Senate by a few seats, then they win the argument.

You really have to admire the ruthlessness with which the Wets have snuffed out the Dries. In Kansas the Wets carried a corpse to victory over the Tea Party candidate. In Mississippi, they played the race card to carry another corpse to victory. In open races, all of the Wets won. They even found a way to split the anti-Graham vote in South Carolina so that ridiculous pansy could keep his seat. I’ve followed politics for a long time and this is about as thorough of a house cleaning as I can recall.

That’s what makes this post by Jim Geraghty interesting.

It is not quite time for Republicans to panic about the Senate races in Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina, but it’s worth ratcheting up the concern another notch.

In Iowa, it’s been a while since Joni Ernst enjoyed a lead:

The last poll that had her ahead — by 1 — was conducted from July 5 to 24.

In Colorado, the good news is that incumbent Democrat Mark Udall remains below 50. But Cory Gardner can’t seem to get over the hill and take the lead:

In North Carolina, the concerns about Thom Tillis are triggered mostly by one poll showing a surprising six-point lead for incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan. But he, too, has had difficulty getting the lead against an incumbent with indisputable problems, and this is in a state Romney won.

Republicans can still win control of the Senate without these races. They need to hold GOP-held seats Kansas, Kentucky, and Georgia; win the expected near-locks of Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and then win in Arkansas, Alaska, and Louisiana. But it must be disconcerting that as the national polling environment looks better and better for the GOP, these three races — and for that matter, Michigan — are not seeing a comparable boost for the Republican candidates.

If those three states remain Democrat, the GOP will not win the Senate. They would need a miracle in New Hampshire to get a 51-seat majority. When you look at the numbers in Kansas, the corpse is in a dead heat with the Democrat, an actual live human. People are funny about voting for dead people. They tend not to do it. Maybe the GOP can reanimate their guy before election night. It probably results in a 50-50 result, which means the Democrats retain control of the Senate.